The great US enrolment crash is coming, says Bucknell president of enrolment management

September 11, 2019

Critics have been saying since the seventies that universities face a looming enrolment crisis, but there are structural indicators showing that the post-2019 world will be very different than what came before, writes Bill Conley, president of enrolment management at Bucknell University. The author gives examples of how applicant-to-enrolment yield models at schools across the US have imploded over the past year, which has led to the questioning of whether the yield approach to enrolment management is still relevant. These challenges will be compounded by a significant decline in US fertility rates during and after the 2008 recession, the author adds, the effects of which will “further deepen the high-school graduation trough” as soon as 2026. Chronicle of Higher Education (International)